Meteorology · Forecasting — Persistence and Trend
The simplest short-range forecasting method, useful when no other data are available, is:
- AUsing last year's weather exactly
- BIgnoring all current observations
- CForecasting the opposite of current conditions
- DPersistence — assuming conditions and the recent trend will continue in the near term✓ Correct
Explanation
Persistence forecasting assumes present conditions (and their trend, e.g., a falling barometer and backing wind) will continue over the next few hours. It is a reasonable first guess for very short ranges, but skill drops quickly as systems move and change; it is refined with observations and official forecasts.
Authority: NWS; marine forecasting
Practice the full Meteorology bank
Free spaced-repetition quizzing across 2550 USCG exam questions — it schedules your reviews so the ones you miss come back until they stick.
Related Meteorology questions
- Atmosphere & Pressure
Standard atmospheric pressure at sea level is approximately:
- Atmosphere & Pressure
One millibar (mb) is equal to:
- Atmosphere & Pressure
A barometer that is falling rapidly most likely indicates:
- Atmosphere & Pressure
On a surface weather chart, isobars spaced very close together indicate:
- Wind
By convention, a wind is named for:
- Wind
In the Northern Hemisphere, the Coriolis effect deflects moving air: