Meteorology · Forecasting & Routing

The '1-2-3 rule' used with a forecast tropical cyclone track refers to:

Explanation

The 1-2-3 rule adds the typical forecast-track error — roughly 100 nm at 24 hours, 200 nm at 48 hours, and 300 nm at 72 hours — around the forecast positions to define a danger area to avoid. It builds a margin for track uncertainty.

Authority: Bowditch (Pub. No. 9)

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